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Sunday, June 16, 2024

NFL odds Week 10: Tom Brady perfect abroad, plus best betting trends


Week 10 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to keep giving you the edges needed to make a profit! 

Last week’s piece highlighted various winners that we foresaw. For starters, underdogs continued to dominate, going 7-3 against the spread (ATS) (70%) and 4-6 straight up (SU) (40%). Additionally, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens improved their record in prime-time games to 10-6 ATS (62.5%) and 12-4 SU (75%) with a convincing 27-13 victory over the New Orleans Saints. And finally, the New England Patriots dominated the Indianapolis Colts in a 26-3 win, improving their record to 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) and 13-6 SU (68.4%) against Indianapolis under Bill Belichick’s tenure. 

As always, we did a deep dive into historical regular season data to identify the best trends for the upcoming week. We also looked at team- and player-specific trends, which should help inform you on who to bet on this week.  

Let’s jump in and have some fun!

Brady is perfect in international games, favorites have also dominated historically

There have been 43 regular season international games played across Mexico, Canada and England since the 2005 season according to our database. Tom Brady has played in three of those matchups, going a perfect 3-0 ATS and SU. Two of those games took place in London, with the other happening in Mexico City. This will be his first time playing in an international game as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with his first three instances coming with the New England Patriots. However, Brady was a favorite in all three of those games and is currently a three-point favorite at FOX Bet against the Seattle Seahawks in Sunday’s matchup in Munich. 

In the 43 international games that have taken place, favorites went a whopping 25-17-1 ATS (59.5%) and 30-12-1 SU (71.4%). Furthermore, Brady and the Buccaneers have lost two straight games both ATS and SU away from Raymond James Stadium. He hasn’t lost three straight games ATS and SU away from home since doing so in 2015-16.   

Eagles should cover against Commanders

The Philadelphia Eagles are still the only undefeated team in the league after a 12-point victory over the Houston Texans last Thursday, and while they didn’t cover the 14-point spread, we like them to cover this week against the Washington Commanders. Philly is 7-3-1 ATS (70%) and 9-2 SU (81.8%) against Washington since 2017, including a 24-8 win in Week 3 of this season. The Birds have also dominated in Monday night games, going 9-5 ATS (64.3%) and 10-4 SU (71.4%) in those matchups since 2013. Conversely, Washington has struggled on Monday night, going 3-11 ATS (21.4%) and SU in that same span.

It should also be noted that the Eagles have Jalen Hurts under center, who is in the top three for MVP odds across most sportsbooks. As a favorite, Hurts is 8-6-1 ATS (57.1%) and 13-2 SU (86.7%) when starting. FOX Bet currently has Philadelphia as a 10.5-point favorite; as nine- to 12-point favorites, they are 5-5-1 ATS (50%) and 10-1 SU (90.9%) since 2012.

Bills should cover against Vikings… IF Josh Allen plays!

We mentioned Jalen Hurts as an MVP front-runner, and Josh Allen is very much in the mix as well. However, the Buffalo Bills signal-caller is dealing with an elbow injury which has put his status for Sunday’s matchup against the Minnesota Vikings as questionable. Minnesota enters the matchup as 3.5-point underdogs according to FOX Bet, despite boasting a 7-1 record this season. That line was originally at seven prior to the revelation of Allen’s injury. Should he play, the data below points towards the Bills covering:

  • Bills are 17-10-3 ATS (63%) and 25-5 SU (83.3%) as a home favorite under Sean McDermott, with Josh Allen under center for 25 of those 30 games (83.3%)
  • Bills are 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) and 14-5 SU (73.7%) when a two- to four-point favorite under Sean McDermott, with Josh Allen being the starter for 14 of those 19 games (73.7%)
  • Bills are 14-7-2 ATS (66.7%) and 16-7 SU (69.6%) when coming off one loss under Sean McDermott; Josh Allen was the starting quarterback for 17 of those 23 games (73.9%)

It also doesn’t hurt that the Vikings have struggled as road underdogs, going 8-12-1 ATS (40%) and 5-16 SU (23.8%) in such situations since 2018. However, should Allen not suit up for Buffalo, it might be worth a wager on the Vikings moneyline. The Bills have not started a backup since 2018, when they started Derek Anderson, Nathan Peterman and Matt Barkley. Over the last 10 years, Buffalo is 5-10 ATS (33.3%) and 4-11 SU (26.7%) when they start a backup quarterback. Furthermore, teams that enter a game as an underdog with a 7-1 SU (87.5%) record are 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) and 11-12 SU (47.8%) since 1968.

McVay owns Cardinals, but Kingsbury dominates as a road underdog 

This matchup became a lot more interesting once it broke that Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol. Sean McVay has been nearly perfect against the Arizona Cardinals in his tenure as the Los Angeles Rams head coach, going 10-1 ATS (90.9%) and SU against them since his first season at the helm. However, 10 of those 11 games had either Stafford or Jared Goff under center. John Wolford did start in that lone game, covering and winning as a one-point favorite in Week 17 of the 2020 season. 

On the other hand, Kliff Kingsbury has been historically dominant as a road underdog. The Cardinals head coach is 15-5-1 ATS (75%) and 13-8 SU (61.9%) in such situations for his career, with the under hitting in 12 of those 21 games (57.1%). Kyler Murray was under center in 19 of those matchups, going 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) and 11-8 SU (57.9%).   

If you’re interested in placing a wager on either side, FOX Bet originally had Los Angeles as 3-point favorites but has now shifted to the Rams as 1.5-point favorites. 

Historical data points towards Falcons covering against Panthers

Over the last 20 seasons, 33 teams have fired their coach during the regular season, with the Carolina Panthers most recently releasing Matt Rhule earlier this year. The Indianapolis Colts fired Frank Reich earlier this week and will now be the 34th team on this list. In the week following firing their head coach, teams have gone 15-18 SU (45.5%) and 17-16 ATS (51.5%). While those numbers might seem appealing, there are a few other trends that point towards betting against the Panthers this week.

Firstly, Carolina is 1-30 ATS (3.2%) and 6-25 SU (19.4%) when they allow just 17-plus points since 2020. Additionally, they are coming off a 42-21 loss against the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Teams that have given up 40-plus points in their previous game are 3-15 ATS (16.7%) and 2-13 SU (13.3%) over the last 20 seasons. The Panthers are a dismal 5-18 ATS (21.7%) over their last 23 games and have also committed to sticking with PJ Walker at quarterback. Since 2019, Carolina is 5-11 ATS (31.3%) and 3-13 SU (18.8%) when starting a backup quarterback.

FOX Bet currently has the Atlanta Falcons as three-point favorites in the Thursday night matchup. They are currently tied at the top of the NFC South with Tampa Bay and are already just one win shy of surpassing their preseason win total of 4.5. The Falcons also have one of the best cover rates in the league this season at 6-3 ATS (66.7%).  

Cowboys should cover against Packers

The Dallas Cowboys are tied for the best cover rate in the league at 6-2 ATS (75%), and take on the struggling Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field this Sunday. Aaron Rodgers has rarely been a home underdog, going 5-1 ATS (83.3%) in the six regular matchups where it’s happened. The seventh instance will take place this week, as FOX Bet has the Packers as five-point underdogs. While Rodgers’ 18-9 ATS (66.7%) record at home since 2019 is the best of any starting quarterback in that span, there are various trends that point towards betting on the Cowboys.

Firstly, Dallas is 8-6 ATS (57.1%) and 10-4 SU (71.4%) against NFC North opponents since 2016, with the over hitting in 11 of those games (78.6%). Mike McCarthy’s bunch is also coming off a bye, a situation in which he has thrived. In his head coaching career, McCarthy is 12-3-1 ATS (80%) and 11-5 SU (68.8%) when coming off a bye. The Cowboys are also 6-4 ATS (60%) and 7-3 SU (70%) off a bye since 2013, with the over hitting in all 10 of those games! Dak Prescott also thrives as a starter when he’s a road favorite, going 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) and 17-7 SU (70.8%) in his career.

So are you ready to place some NFL Week 10 bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers! 

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!  


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