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Friday, June 21, 2024

NFL odds Week 10: Best bets for Lions-Bears, Commanders-Eagles and more


Who doesn’t love a 4-0-1 betting weekend?

Our best bets (25-18-1) are in the green, and I’m rolling with four plays over the next few days. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

No. 23 Florida State at Syracuse (8 p.m. ET Saturday, ACC Network)

I think there’s a decent chance Garrett Shrader plays for Cuse.

The junior quarterback missed last weekend’s game against Pittsburgh with an undisclosed injury, and Orange head coach Dino Babers has been rather mum this week about his status. We know it’s not a concussion, but it’s difficult to confirm anything else at this point.

If Shrader goes, though, this number evaporates.

It’s easy to look at Syracuse’s last three games – all losses – and think the team has mailed it in, but that’s unfair. They’re still fighting for a shot at eight wins, and Saturday night’s game at a jam-packed Carrier Dome will not be an easy game for Florida State by any means.

Take the points.

PICK: Syracuse (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

Joel Klatt’s CFP Rankings Takeaways: Michigan, USC ranked too high, TCU at No. 4

Joel Klatt reacts to the CFP Rankings.

No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2)

This game is going to be a roller coaster.

The point total is currently [O/U] 77 at most American sportsbooks, so expect to watch both teams cross the goal line all night long. I just can’t stop thinking about buying low on Wake Forest and quarterback Sam Hartman.

After tossing three interceptions in his first six games, Hartman hurled three at Louisville and three more at NC State in back-to-back weeks. To say that’s uncharacteristic would be an understatement.

North Carolina’s defense is easily the worst in the ACC – the Tar Heels allow 457 yards per game – and I fully expect Hartman and the Deacs’ offensive line to right the ship off two tough tilts.

I’m buying the dip on Wake.

PICK: Wake Forest (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points

Lions at Bears (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

So… the Bears have a quarterback.

Justin Fields shredded the Dolphins last week for an NFL regular-season record 178 rushing yards. Local sports radio exploded Monday, with one station anointing Fields as the best quarterback in the NFC North.

The ironic part is Chicago still gave up 35 points and lost.

The Bears’ defense is a nightmare right now, with Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn now suiting up for playoff teams, and the front seven is going to struggle mightily over the next two months. The pass rush is almost non-existent, and even with Smith and Quinn, these guys couldn’t stop the run.

This line should be a pick ‘em.

PICK: Lions (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Commanders at Eagles (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

This is a number grab more than anything.

Washington has been feisty since quarterback Taylor Heinicke re-entered the chat, and it makes sense. He gets the ball to his best players and gets the hell out of the way. And I find it no coincidence that the Commanders have played in three extremely close games since he’s been under center.

It’s never easy to blow out divisional opponents, and if the Commanders’ front seven can slow the run, it’ll be tough for Jalen Hurts and Co. to blow the doors off. This won’t be a popular play by any means, but I’m willing to roll the dice.

Plug your nose and take all those points. 

PICK: Commanders (+10.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points (or win outright)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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